Ramos-Horta
East Timor president José Ramos-Horta has been the subject of a violent coup attempt. He has been shot in the stomach. He has been upgraded from “critical” to “serious but stable” condition.
Why the upgrade? He was flown to Australia, at presumably some government’s expense, to undergo first-world lifesaving surgery and medical treatment.
Ramos-Horta is 58 years old. The average male lifespan in East Timor is 64 years. Why the low mortality age? I’m not sure what proportion is war and insurrection, what percentage is tropical diseases, and what percentage is lousy medical care, but the latter has to figure in, doesn’t it?
I’m kind of thinking that when a president is shot, he needs to be rushed to the nearest public clinic. I’d go so far as to say he or she could go to the front of the line, get the best surgeon, and have the government pay the bill. But to be flown to Australia while your citizens drop like tsetse flies? Defies belief.
Of course, in this case, that course of action would have been a death sentence. Which is really the point, when you think about it.
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February 11th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Are the borders actually closed in East Timor to all citizens? The CIA reports a net migration rate of zero. That just doesn’t happen naturally. Switzerland has a net migration rate of 2.66 migrants⁄1,000 population. Assuming zero is not a placeholder value by the CIA, did Ramos-Horta actually do something that would be illegal for anyone else to do?
February 11th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
The Human Development Index lists East Timor in its medium range, which is not all that bad for a nation of that size, and an average male lifespan of 64 is pretty respectable for a country currently suffering from civil unrest, especially in light of most of its infrastructure being destroyed by Indonesia within the last ten years.
I’m not really sure how to account for the migration numbers in the CIA World Factbook, but given that there are large numbers of refugees returning to the country in the wake of Indonesia’s departure, a net migration of 0 seem wrong. Ramos-Horta is a Nobel Peace Prize winner, and has been fairly popular with the UN for some time. That doesn’t really mesh with the thought that East Timor has closed its borders.
While I can appreciate the sentiment behind the notion of world leaders being sent to the nearest local hospitals in their respective nations, I’d wager dollars to donuts that the medical community of East Timor feels otherwise about the prospect of the highest-profile target of the ongoing civil war being dropped off in their waiting rooms.
February 11th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Fair and reasoned. Thank you.
I couldn’t account for there not being positive migration numbers in the factbook, either.
If you’re implying that they did it to get the target of assassination as far away as possible, so as not to risk the welfare of innocent bystanders, that’s a point I hadn’t considered.
February 11th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Well, I’m sure that the decision wasn’t entirely based upon the well-being of innocent bystanders. Obviously, if you’re shot in the gut, you’re going to want to get yourself the best medical care that you can afford, and the best that Ramos-Horta could afford was probably better than the best that East Timor could provide.
Even if the safety of others in the hospital wasn’t the primary concern, I think that it will probably be a net benefit to the people of East Timor that Ramos-Horta receives the best medical care available. There’s nothing quite like having a political leader assassinated to make a bad situation worse in a time of civil unrest. Those rushing to fill the space left by the fallen leader rarely take the time to make sure that they don’t step on the little guy on their way to the throne.
February 11th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Wow, where did my last comment go? Did I close the wrong window without posting or something? Weird.
Anyway, I’ll rewrite a shortened version. The situation is exceedingly complex to me. There have been depictions in some circles of would-be assassin Reinado as a rebel for justice. He was opposed to the former administration in East Timor, which he began to oppose when they sacked him and 600 other members of the armed forces without compensation. There have also been depictions of him and his followers as a minority oppressed by a slightly larger minority, and him as campaigning for the rights of the desperately poor in East Timor. During the previous administration, there was a warrant for his arrest, while he was trying to hold them accountable.
The previous administration is not the party of Ramos-Horta, so I’m not entirely sure what’s going on. Ramos-Horta rescinded the warrant and has met with Reinado before to try to peaceably convince him to disarm. Reinado had refused, and was due to be tried on charges soon that I don’t entirely understand.
The BBC are being especially — and surprisingly — pro-Reinado in all this, even to the extent of implications (or am I reading too much into their statements?) that the Nobel Prize was unwarranted for Ramos-Horta.
Time to read up on this issue further, I guess.
February 11th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Oh, and with a name like Alfredo Reinado, what’s he doing not making his living as a pro footballer? That name would seem to bestow magical football powers in all so christened.
February 11th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Honestly, I’m not sure where my sentiments fall if forced to choose between the two. The story of those left behind fighting over the remains when the colonial powers move away is all too familiar, and it’s rare that such a situation creates clear-cut “good guys” and “bad guys” amongst the warring factions. I don’t really have enough familiarity with the situation in East Timor to make any sort of claim regarding who the white hats are without suspecting that I’d be doing someone a grave injustice.
My research suggests that Reinado was not sacked by the former administration, but deserted the military to join with those who had been sacked. He supposedly had dialogue with Ramos-Horta back in August, but that seems to have fallen apart given today’s events. Whether that dialogue was conducted in good faith or not is ultimately beyond our ability to know, since Reinado certainly won’t be saying anything more on that (or any other) subject.
February 11th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
My research suggests that Reinado was not sacked by the former administration, but deserted the military to join with those who had been sacked.
Yes, I believe that is correct.
Whether that dialogue was conducted in good faith or not is ultimately beyond our ability to know
Alas, I believe that is also correct.